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Presentations & Publications
Year | Title | Author(s) | Summary | Link (Paper) | Link (Presentation) | Keyword(s) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | Chasm of Archetype: Leveraging Personality Diversity in Cost Estimation | Tyler Duran & Stephen Koellner | This presentation examines how introverts and extroverts contribute differently to cost estimation teams. It offers strategies to leverage strengths, improve communication, and build balanced, effective teams. | N/A | Link | Communication, Program Management, Team Management, Interpersonal skills |
2025 | Leveraging Synthetic Data for Maximum Predictive Power | Obai Kamara & Taylor Fountain | Using GANs to generate synthetic data for cost estimation in data-scarce environments, we compare the accuracy of CERs based on synthetic vs. real data and explore the potential, limitations, and applications. | Link | Link | Data Collection, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Regression, Machine learning, CERs, data science, GANs |
2025 | Maiden in the Tower: The Intersection of MBSE and Cost Estimating | Stephen Koellner & Daniel Larison | This brief is about how traditional project controls activities can be integrated with MBSE practices in a workflow that enables synthesis of system design/requirements through rapid trade-off analysis. | Link | Link | Cost/Benefit Analysis, Program Management, Project Controls, Model Based Systems Engineering |
2025 | Question the Requirement: Using IGCEs to Reduce Waste | Ryan Webster & Wendy Cassidy | Augur will walk through specific observations and discuss how the IGCE process can be used to force re-validation of requirements as well as suggest contract structures to more effectively control costs. | N/A | Link | Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data Collection, Performance Management, Negotiations |
2025 | Show Me the (Schedule) Metrics | Wendy Cassidy & Michelle Chau | This topic discusses what to do when schedule baselines are unrealistic but are pushed to be achieved. We provide examples on managing more realistic projections and effective communication to program management. | N/A | Link | Program Management; Critical Path; Schedule Baseline Management; Communication |
2025 | Uncovering the Hidden Triangles of Uncertainty Analysis | Julia Peters & Gabriella Magasic | We discuss how cost estimators can utilize geometric reasoning to better understand statistical concepts in uncertainty analysis. | Link | Link | Communication, Methods, Risk, Statistics, Uncertainty |
2024 | Explosive Analysis | Ryan Webster, Robel Semunegus, Taylor Fountain, Daniel Larison, & Wendy Cassidy | This tool and the accompanying insights will enable senior leadership to negotiate with warfare centers and more easily measure performance. | Link | Link | Data Science, Parametric, Performance Management, Cost Tools, Regression |
2024 | Maintaining Baseline Control through a BCP | Dave Ingalls | This brief is focused on BCRs and BCPs, warning signs for loss of baseline control, best practices for change management during implementation, and strategies to avoid recurrence. | N/A | Link | Baseline Change Management, BCP, BCR, Rebaselining, Replanning, Reprogramming, OTB/OTS, Single Point Adjustment (SPA) |
2024 | Maximizing Analysis of Minimalized Datasets: Making the Most of a Data-Scarce Environment | Taylor Fountain & Obai Kamara | This topic will evaluate common methods to analyze minimalized datasets for developing defendable cost estimates and demonstrate the statistical impacts of their underlying assumptions. | Link | Link | Data-Driven, Methods, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Regression, Uncertainty, Data Science |
2024 | Schedule Analysis Best Practices for Capital Projects | Dave Ingalls | This brief highlights best practices for the creation of a defendable schedule (IMS) baseline to enable actionable performance metrics during project execution. | N/A | Link | Schedule Health; Schedule Construction; Schedule Risk |
2024 | Schedule Risk at Early Acquisition | Gabriella Magasic & Sam Kitchin | This presentation will discuss how to address schedule risk in low maturity projects. | Link | Link | Program Management, Risk, Scheduling, Uncertainty, Analysis, SRA |
2024 | Surveillance Reviews vs. Integrated Baseline Reviews (IBRs) | Sam Kitchin, Dave Ingalls, & J. Greg Smith (Humphreys) | This presentation will compare and contrast these two types of review, demonstrating how and why they differ. Key terminology, stakeholders, artifacts, timeline, and intended results will be discussed. | N/A | Link | EVM Function Points, Performance Management, Program Management, Project Controls, Earned Value Management |
2024 | Triage the Sub-Projects:
Calculating and Applying Portfolio Contingency | Stephen Koellner & Nick Peeples | This topic will explore methods for calculating portfolio contingency, using a tangible example to demonstrate. | Link | Link | Budgeting, Cost Management, Decision Analysis, Program Management, Project Controls, Uncertainty |
2023 | Scheduling Agile-Fall: Best Practices | Max Pessel, Ryan Webster, & Sam Kitchin | This presentation will demonstrate best practices for schedule construction in an Agile environment and its implications on cost, delivery, and performance. | N/A | Link | Schedule Analysis |
2023 | Spread Too Thin: Interpreting Coefficient Variation in Monte-Carlo Based Cost Models | Stephen Koellner | Realistic cost uncertainty bounds are key for mitigating cost-growth risks, this topic will identify and counter causes of CV thinning in bottoms-up cost models. | Link | Link | Cost Analysis; Data Analysis |
2022 | Preparing for Software Negotiations: Adding Value Through the IGCE Process | Ryan Webster & Stephen Koellner | The brief outlines how Augur has supported vendor negotiations and implemented cost savings and avoidance. | N/A | Link | Cost Analysis; Performance Management |
2017 | Merge Bias and Correlation Applied to Schedule Risk Assessments (SRAs) | Noah Ashbaugh | The brief explains the basics of SRAs, merge bias and its impact on schedule planning, and how correlation can be used and its impact on SRA results. | N/A | Link | Schedule Analysis; Performance Management |
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