Presentations & Publications

2025

Chasm of Archetype: Leveraging Personality Diversity in Cost Estimation

Tyler Duran & Stephen Koellner

This presentation examines how introverts and extroverts contribute differently to cost estimation teams. It offers strategies to leverage strengths, improve communication, and build balanced, effective teams.

N/A

Communication, Program Management, Team Management, Interpersonal skills

2025

Leveraging Synthetic Data for Maximum Predictive Power

Obai Kamara & Taylor Fountain

Using GANs to generate synthetic data for cost estimation in data-scarce environments, we compare the accuracy of CERs based on synthetic vs. real data and explore the potential, limitations, and applications.

Data Collection, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Regression, Machine learning, CERs, data science, GANs

2025

Maiden in the Tower: The Intersection of MBSE and Cost Estimating

Stephen Koellner & Daniel Larison

This brief is about how traditional project controls activities can be integrated with MBSE practices in a workflow that enables synthesis of system design/requirements through rapid trade-off analysis.

Cost/Benefit Analysis, Program Management, Project Controls, Model Based Systems Engineering

2025

Question the Requirement: Using IGCEs to Reduce Waste

Ryan Webster & Wendy Cassidy

Augur will walk through specific observations and discuss how the IGCE process can be used to force re-validation of requirements as well as suggest contract structures to more effectively control costs.

N/A

Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data Collection, Performance Management, Negotiations

2025

Show Me the (Schedule) Metrics

Wendy Cassidy & Michelle Chau

This topic discusses what to do when schedule baselines are unrealistic but are pushed to be achieved. We provide examples on managing more realistic projections and effective communication to program management.

N/A

Program Management; Critical Path; Schedule Baseline Management; Communication

2025

Uncovering the Hidden Triangles of Uncertainty Analysis

Julia Peters & Gabriella Magasic

We discuss how cost estimators can utilize geometric reasoning to better understand statistical concepts in uncertainty analysis.

Communication, Methods, Risk, Statistics, Uncertainty

2024

Explosive Analysis

Ryan Webster, Robel Semunegus, Taylor Fountain, Daniel Larison, & Wendy Cassidy

This tool and the accompanying insights will enable senior leadership to negotiate with warfare centers and more easily measure performance.

Data Science, Parametric, Performance Management, Cost Tools, Regression

2024

Maintaining Baseline Control through a BCP

Dave Ingalls

This brief is focused on BCRs and BCPs, warning signs for loss of baseline control, best practices for change management during implementation, and strategies to avoid recurrence.

N/A

Baseline Change Management, BCP, BCR, Rebaselining, Replanning, Reprogramming, OTB/OTS, Single Point Adjustment (SPA)

2024

Maximizing Analysis of Minimalized Datasets: Making the Most of a Data-Scarce Environment

Taylor Fountain & Obai Kamara

This topic will evaluate common methods to analyze minimalized datasets for developing defendable cost estimates and demonstrate the statistical impacts of their underlying assumptions.

Data-Driven, Methods, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Regression, Uncertainty, Data Science

2024

Schedule Analysis Best Practices for Capital Projects

Dave Ingalls

This brief highlights best practices for the creation of a defendable schedule (IMS) baseline to enable actionable performance metrics during project execution.

N/A

Schedule Health; Schedule Construction; Schedule Risk

2024

Schedule Risk at Early Acquisition

Gabriella Magasic & Sam Kitchin

This presentation will discuss how to address schedule risk in low maturity projects.

Program Management, Risk, Scheduling, Uncertainty, Analysis, SRA

2024

Surveillance Reviews vs. Integrated Baseline Reviews (IBRs)

Sam Kitchin, Dave Ingalls, & J. Greg Smith (Humphreys)

This presentation will compare and contrast these two types of review, demonstrating how and why they differ. Key terminology, stakeholders, artifacts, timeline, and intended results will be discussed.

N/A

EVM Function Points, Performance Management, Program Management, Project Controls, Earned Value Management

2024

Triage the Sub-Projects: Calculating and Applying Portfolio Contingency

Stephen Koellner & Nick Peeples

This topic will explore methods for calculating portfolio contingency, using a tangible example to demonstrate.

Budgeting, Cost Management, Decision Analysis, Program Management, Project Controls, Uncertainty

2023

Scheduling Agile-Fall: Best Practices

Max Pessel, Ryan Webster, & Sam Kitchin

This presentation will demonstrate best practices for schedule construction in an Agile environment and its implications on cost, delivery, and performance.

Schedule Analysis

2023

Spread Too Thin: Interpreting Coefficient Variation in Monte-Carlo Based Cost Models

Stephen Koellner

Realistic cost uncertainty bounds are key for mitigating cost-growth risks, this topic will identify and counter causes of CV thinning in bottoms-up cost models.

Cost Analysis; Data Analysis

2022

Preparing for Software Negotiations: Adding Value Through the IGCE Process

Ryan Webster & Stephen Koellner

The brief outlines how Augur has supported vendor negotiations and implemented cost savings and avoidance.

N/A

Cost Analysis; Performance Management

2017

Merge Bias and Correlation Applied to Schedule Risk Assessments (SRAs)

Noah Ashbaugh

The brief explains the basics of SRAs, merge bias and its impact on schedule planning, and how correlation can be used and its impact on SRA results. 

N/A

Schedule Analysis; Performance Management