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Presentations & Publications

Year
Title
Author(s)
Summary
Link (Paper)
Link (Presentation)
Keyword(s)
2025
Chasm of Archetype: Leveraging Personality Diversity in Cost Estimation
Tyler Duran & Stephen Koellner
This presentation examines how introverts and extroverts contribute differently to cost estimation teams. It offers strategies to leverage strengths, improve communication, and build balanced, effective teams.
N/A
Link
Communication, Program Management, Team Management, Interpersonal skills
2025
Leveraging Synthetic Data for Maximum Predictive Power
Obai Kamara & Taylor Fountain
Using GANs to generate synthetic data for cost estimation in data-scarce environments, we compare the accuracy of CERs based on synthetic vs. real data and explore the potential, limitations, and applications.
Link
Link
Data Collection, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Regression, Machine learning, CERs, data science, GANs
2025
Maiden in the Tower: The Intersection of MBSE and Cost Estimating
Stephen Koellner & Daniel Larison
This brief is about how traditional project controls activities can be integrated with MBSE practices in a workflow that enables synthesis of system design/requirements through rapid trade-off analysis.
Link
Link
Cost/Benefit Analysis, Program Management, Project Controls, Model Based Systems Engineering
2025
Question the Requirement: Using IGCEs to Reduce Waste
Ryan Webster & Wendy Cassidy
Augur will walk through specific observations and discuss how the IGCE process can be used to force re-validation of requirements as well as suggest contract structures to more effectively control costs.
N/A
Link
Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data Collection, Performance Management, Negotiations
2025
Show Me the (Schedule) Metrics
Wendy Cassidy & Michelle Chau
This topic discusses what to do when schedule baselines are unrealistic but are pushed to be achieved. We provide examples on managing more realistic projections and effective communication to program management.
N/A
Link
Program Management; Critical Path; Schedule Baseline Management; Communication
2025
Uncovering the Hidden Triangles of Uncertainty Analysis
Julia Peters & Gabriella Magasic
We discuss how cost estimators can utilize geometric reasoning to better understand statistical concepts in uncertainty analysis.
Link
Link
Communication, Methods, Risk, Statistics, Uncertainty
2024
Explosive Analysis
Ryan Webster, Robel Semunegus, Taylor Fountain, Daniel Larison, & Wendy Cassidy
This tool and the accompanying insights will enable senior leadership to negotiate with warfare centers and more easily measure performance.
Link
Link
Data Science, Parametric, Performance Management, Cost Tools, Regression
2024
Maintaining Baseline Control through a BCP
Dave Ingalls
This brief is focused on BCRs and BCPs, warning signs for loss of baseline control, best practices for change management during implementation, and strategies to avoid recurrence.
N/A
Link
Baseline Change Management, BCP, BCR, Rebaselining, Replanning, Reprogramming, OTB/OTS, Single Point Adjustment (SPA)
2024
Maximizing Analysis of Minimalized Datasets: Making the Most of a Data-Scarce Environment
Taylor Fountain & Obai Kamara
This topic will evaluate common methods to analyze minimalized datasets for developing defendable cost estimates and demonstrate the statistical impacts of their underlying assumptions.
Link
Link
Data-Driven, Methods, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Regression, Uncertainty, Data Science
2024
Schedule Analysis Best Practices for Capital Projects
Dave Ingalls
This brief highlights best practices for the creation of a defendable schedule (IMS) baseline to enable actionable performance metrics during project execution.
N/A
Link
Schedule Health; Schedule Construction; Schedule Risk
2024
Schedule Risk at Early Acquisition
Gabriella Magasic & Sam Kitchin
This presentation will discuss how to address schedule risk in low maturity projects.
Link
Link
Program Management, Risk, Scheduling, Uncertainty, Analysis, SRA
2024
Surveillance Reviews vs. Integrated Baseline Reviews (IBRs)
Sam Kitchin, Dave Ingalls, & J. Greg Smith (Humphreys)
This presentation will compare and contrast these two types of review, demonstrating how and why they differ. Key terminology, stakeholders, artifacts, timeline, and intended results will be discussed.
N/A
Link
EVM Function Points, Performance Management, Program Management, Project Controls, Earned Value Management
2024
Triage the Sub-Projects: Calculating and Applying Portfolio Contingency
Stephen Koellner & Nick Peeples
This topic will explore methods for calculating portfolio contingency, using a tangible example to demonstrate.
Link
Link
Budgeting, Cost Management, Decision Analysis, Program Management, Project Controls, Uncertainty
2023
Scheduling Agile-Fall: Best Practices
Max Pessel, Ryan Webster, & Sam Kitchin
This presentation will demonstrate best practices for schedule construction in an Agile environment and its implications on cost, delivery, and performance.
N/A
Link
Schedule Analysis
2023
Spread Too Thin: Interpreting Coefficient Variation in Monte-Carlo Based Cost Models
Stephen Koellner
Realistic cost uncertainty bounds are key for mitigating cost-growth risks, this topic will identify and counter causes of CV thinning in bottoms-up cost models.
Link
Link
Cost Analysis; Data Analysis
2022
Preparing for Software Negotiations: Adding Value Through the IGCE Process
Ryan Webster & Stephen Koellner
The brief outlines how Augur has supported vendor negotiations and implemented cost savings and avoidance.
N/A
Link
Cost Analysis; Performance Management
2017
Merge Bias and Correlation Applied to Schedule Risk Assessments (SRAs)
Noah Ashbaugh
The brief explains the basics of SRAs, merge bias and its impact on schedule planning, and how correlation can be used and its impact on SRA results. 
N/A
Link
Schedule Analysis; Performance Management
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