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Publications

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide

After months of working groups, the latest GAO cost guide has been released. We are very proud of our named contributors: Dave Ingalls, Sam Kitchin, Stephen Koellner, Kurt Wasileski, and Ryan Webster!

Presentations

Informs Business Analytics Conference, ICEAA Conference,
& AACE International & Northeast Conferences

Stephen Koellner's white paper,"Spread Too Thin: Interpreting Coefficient of Variation in Monte-Carlo Based Cost Models" was selected to be presented at three conferences.

Presentation synopsis: Realistic cost uncertainty bounds are key for mitigating cost-growth risks, this topic will identify and counter causes of CV thinning in bottoms-up cost models. Concepts such as “Over-sharpening the pencil” and the importance of correlating input variables are justified through this discussion. A CV equation is identified for a WBS, and behavior of this equation is explored through perturbations of a baseline and results of randomly generated WBSs. Both new and experienced estimators can learn what causes bottoms-up CV thinning through this rigorous yet approachable presentation.

To view the presentation, click on the following link: 

Informs Business Analytics Conference & ICEAA Conference

Max Pessel's white paper,"Scheduling Agile-Fall: Best Practices" was presented at both Informs and ICEAA this year. 

Presentation synopsis: A high-quality schedule can improve a program’s ability to clarify requirements, predict cost, and communicate effectively by creating a common denominator that links complex efforts across a project. Many Agile programs operate using a hybrid waterfall approach making a properly built schedule critical for understanding the relationship between agile development and government requirements. This presentation will demonstrate best practices for schedule construction in an Agile environment and its implications on cost, delivery, and performance.

To view the presentation, click on the following link: 

Department of Homeland Security's Joint IT and Software Cost Forum: IT-CAST

Ryan Webster and Stephen Koellner collaborated with PEO-EIS cost leadership, Martha Spurlock, to present a brief on software negotiations at the IT-CAST Conference. The brief outlines how Augur has supported vendor negotiations and implemented cost savings and avoidance. Many of the efforts mentioned in the brief were put to practice and resulted in Augur winning ICEAA's "Team Achievement of the Year" Award!

To view the presentation, click on the following link: 

https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/preparing_for_software_negotiations_koellner_webster.pdf

To read the ICEAA "Team Achievement of the Year" Award nomination, click the following link: 

https://www.iceaaonline.com/ready/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/ICEAA2022Awards.pdf Pages 3-4

Earned Value Management Practioners' (EVMP) Forum

Noah Ashbaugh presented his brief "Merge Bias and Correlation applied to Schedule Risk Assessments (SRAs)" at the EVMP Forum to discuss the impacts that SRA inputs have on SRA results. The brief goes over when to conduct an SRA, the basics of applying schedule uncertainty, schedule maturity and how it impacts SRA results, merge bias and its impact on schedule planning, and how correlation can be used and its impact on SRA results. 

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