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Presentations & Publications

Title
Author(s)
Summary
Link (Paper)
Link (Presentation)
Focus Areas
Year
Explosive Analysis
Ryan Webster, Robel Semunegus, Taylor Fountain, Daniel Larison, & Wendy Cassidy
This tool and the accompanying insights will enable senior leadership to negotiate with warfare centers and more easily measure performance.
Link
Link
Data Science, Parametric, Performance Management, Cost Tools, Regression
2024
Maximizing Analysis of Minimalized Datasets: Making the Most of a Data-Scarce Environment
Taylor Fountain & Obai Kamara
This topic will evaluate common methods to analyze minimalized datasets for developing defendable cost estimates, such as complexity factors and 3-point distribution fitting, and demonstrate the statistical impacts of their underlying assumptions.
Link
Link
Data-Driven, Methods, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Regression, Uncertainty, Data Science
2024
Merge Bias and Correlation Applied to Schedule Risk Assessments (SRAs)
Noah Ashbaugh
The brief explains the basics of SRAs, merge bias and its impact on schedule planning, and how correlation can be used and its impact on SRA results. 
Link
Schedule Analysis; Performance Management
2017
Preparing for Software Negotiations: Adding Value Through the IGCE Process
Ryan Webster & Stephen Koellner
The brief outlines how Augur has supported vendor negotiations and implemented cost savings and avoidance.
Link
Cost Analysis; Performance Management
2022
Schedule Risk at Early Acquisition
Gabriella Magasic & Sam Kitchin
In this presentation, we will discuss how to address schedule risk in low maturity projects by investigating different risk modeling techniques, reviewing existing guidance on schedule risk, and analyzing how uncertainty analysis must be interpreted and applied early in the project lifecycle.
Link
Link
Program Management, Risk, Scheduling, Uncertainty, Analysis
2024
Scheduling Agile-Fall: Best Practices
Max Pessel
This presentation will demonstrate best practices for schedule construction in an Agile environment and its implications on cost, delivery, and performance.
Link
Schedule Analysis
2023
Spread Too Thin: Interpreting Coefficient Variation in Monte-Carlo Based Cost Models
Stephen Koellner
Realistic cost uncertainty bounds are key for mitigating cost-growth risks, this topic will identify and counter causes of CV thinning in bottoms-up cost models.
Link
Link
Cost Analysis; Data Analysis
2023
Surveillance Reviews vs. Integrated Baseline Reviews (IBRs)
Sam Kitchin & Dave Ingalls
This presentation will compare and contrast these two types of review, demonstrating how and why they differ. Key terminology, stakeholders, artifacts, timeline, and intended results will be discussed.
Link
EVM Function Points, Government, Performance Management, Program Management, Project Controls, Earned Value Management
2024
Triage the Sub-Projects: Calculating and Applying Portfolio Contingency
Stephen Koellner & Nick Peeples
In a portfolio of projects, allocating uncertainty at the portfolio level will result in a different risk-adjusted cost than applying the same allocation at the project level, and so it is unclear whether a portfolio should allocate and manage risk-informed contingency at the portfolio or project level. This topic will explore methods for calculating portfolio contingency, using a tangible example to demonstrate.
Link
Link
Budgeting, Cost Management, Decision Analysis, Program Management, Project Controls, Uncertainty
2024
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